V krizi smisla tiči misel






         

31.12.2014

Ob Silvestrovem

V zadnjih dneh sem se ukvarjal s člankom iz svojega doktorata (ki naj bi bil, končno(…) zagovorjen v januarju). S tem sem imel priložnost, da se po daljšem času poukvarjam z močno matematično navdahnjeno ekonomsko teorijo pogodb. Bralcem, ki jih to zanima, podajam dve morda najboljši, na spletu dostopni knjigi s tega področja: Bolton & Dewatripont in Laffont & Martimort. Preverjeno sta obe odlični.

O napovedih za 2015 glede ekonomije pišeta Tyler Cowen in Justin Wolfers. O starem letu pa Menzie Chinn oz. Econbrowser.

V novo leto pa vas pošiljam s pesmijo Diane Krall. Uživajte, naj bo vsaj tako dobro kot letos, če je bilo slabo, pa precej boljše!

YouTube slika preogleda
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28.12.2014

David Giles, strukturni prelomi in kino predstave

Dave Giles ima na svojem blogu Econometrics Beat zanimiv, preprost in uporaben članek, kako analizirati strukturne prelome in kointegracijo dveh časovnih vrst, na primeru gibanja števila prebivalcev in števila ovac v Novi Zelandiji.

Sam vas izzivam v naslednje. V temle prispevku sem sam kratko pokazal na osnovna gibanja števila obiskovalcev različnih kulturnih dogodkov, med drugim tudi daljše časovne vrste za obiskovalce kinopredstav. Z običajnimi testi strukturnih prelomov sem sam na hitro določil, da so se v številu obiska kinopredstav zgodili prelomi v naslednjih letih: 1957, 1974, 1990 in 1993. Naloga pa je:

1) ustrezno razložiti, zakaj so nastali prelomi prav v teh letih – kaj se je torej dogajalo v teh letih (in ali so prelomi sploh točno določeni);
2) sledeč izpeljavi Davea Gilesa ugotoviti, ali je bilo to kakorkoli povezano z gibanjem števila prebivalcev Slovenije – ali morda celo s katero drugo makroekonomsko spremenljivko.

Podatkovno bazo števila obiskovalcev kina najdete na tem naslovu (Kinopredstave).

Svoje rešitve in komentarje vam sporočim nekje po praznikih.

Vsem bralcem bloga pa želim uspešno in srečno leto 2015, mnogi pravijo, da bo bolj uspešno od predhodnih, videli bomo, če bo to res, vendar naj se te besede pozlatijo.

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20.12.2014

Novice

Najprej, včeraj sem gostoval v oddaji Panoptikum na RTV Slovenija 1 o kulturni politiki. Posnetek oddaje si lahko pogledate tukaj.

Sprejetih je nekaj novih člankov. Najprej, članek zasedbe Hlebec, Filipovič Hrast, Majcen in Srakar je sprejet na osrednji svetovni gerontološko-geriatrični kongres v Dublinu aprila. Spodaj je kratek povzetek:

WELFARE SYSTEMS, ELDERLY CARE AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION: CASE OF SLOVENIA

In the article we will explore the relationship between the long term care of the elderly and social exclusion in its different forms (economic, social, institutional, spatial). Long term care is becoming one of key problems when discussing problems of social exclusion of the elderly. As noted by Theobald (2005), since the 1990s in most western European countries approaches in elderly care have undergone considerable restructuring processes. Countries like Slovenia are still trying to implement the necessary measures to provide the support to the elderly people. We will therefore use SHARE Wave 5 dataset to take into account the correlation between long term care and social exclusion and its dependence upon the welfare system (following classifications such as Esping-Andersen 1990, Liebfried 1993, Abrahamson 1999, Palier 2006). Our main hypothesis to verify will be that people who suffer from any form of social exclusion are more likely to have “unmet needs” for long term care, unmet needs being defined following Gannon and Davin (2010) as number of people who need care (e.g. have functional limitations or ADL/IADL problems) yet don’t receive neither formal nor informal care. We will also claim that this relationship strongly depends upon the type of welfare system and that it is higher for people experiencing multiple exclusion. We will analyse the data for all 19 countries included in SHARE Wave 5 with particular focus on Slovenia and using the Deville-Särndal calibration procedure provide also the estimates of total number of people with unmet needs in Slovenia.

Na konferenco o razvoju organizacijskih znanosti v Portorožu je bil sprejet sledeči “podaljšani” povzetek (enak povzetek je bil prijavljen tudi za AIMAC v Marseillu):

CONDITION AND EFFICIENCY OF SLOVENIAN ORGANISATIONS IN THE FIELD OF CULTURE: A DATA-ENVELOPMENT-ANALYSIS APPROACH (skupaj z Anelo Bešo)

In Slovenia, the field of nongovernmental organisations (NGO’s) in culture and the arts is widely debated in past years, particularly after the former minister of culture, Mrs. Majda Širca, agreed to implement the working groups for structured dialogue between the NGO’s (and self-employed) in culture and the Ministry of Culture in Slovenian practice, following the commonly accepted practice on the level of the European Union. Another former minister of culture, Dr. Uroš Grilc, has included NGO’s as one of the primary responsibilities of his mandate, yet didn’t do much in terms of concrete and deep-reaching measures.

In the area of NGO’s in culture in Slovenia, particularly stressing is the lack of credible data on the condition of the sector. Even today it is impossible to make even very simple comparisons of e.g. incomes, employees, number of performances, number of visitors, etc. between NGO’s and the institutions of the public sector. In 2011, Društvo Asociacija – Association of Slovenian NGO’s and Self-Employed in Culture and the Arts, has proposed to the Statistical Office of Republic of Slovenia (SORS) a new question in the regular yearly questionnaires for organisations in the field of culture, on the basis of which it finally became possible to distinguish the answers of organisations from different sectors.

Our analysis will therefore use the micro-data of SORS for years 2012-2013, which has so far never been analysed and which allows a deeper insight into various indicators of the condition of all organisations in culture, to present the similarities and differences among organisations, particularly between the organisations of the public and NGO sector. In this manner we Will also test the prevailing opinion that NGO’s lack in productivity when compared to the institutions of the public sector in culture. We will include basic comparisons of indicators such as yearly income (in different types of funds: public (national), public (local), public (European), private investments (donations, sponsorships, etc.), own income), number of employees (including number of part-time and other forms of employees), number of performances and visitors, disposal of own or rented space for work/performance, etc. This part of the article will mainly use descriptive statistics and basic parametric and nonparametric tests to verify number of hypotheses of the relationship between organisations of the public and NGO sector.

Secondly, on the basis of the SORS micro-data, we will be able to determine the efficiency of different organisations as measured by diversity of performance measures and criteria. To this manner we will use DEA analysis, based on Simar & Wilson two-stage bootstrap correction (as used by e.g. Cuccia, Guccio & Rizzo 2013). Methodologically, we will add two corrections to previous methodology: firstly, we will implement also the Zervopoulos (2012) DEA correction; and, secondly, we will compare the results of DEA analysis according to two different types of organisations: public and NGO. Finally, we will use the computed efficiency scores in regression analysis to determine the factors influencing the efficiency of both public as well as nongovernmental organisations.

The article will, therefore, present a rich and mainly applied-oriented perspective on the NGO and public sector in culture in Slovenia. It will be an important addition to the knowledge in the field of NGO sector in culture in Slovenia, as it will, basically, present a first statistically more solid analysis and data which has so far never been analysed. It will also add to the growing literature on efficiency of institutions in culture (see e.g. Zieba 2011; Cuccia, Guccio & Rizzo 2013; Guccio, Pignataro, Mazza & Rizzo 2014; Suominen 2014; Herrero-Prieto & Gómez-Vega 2014) by implementing two main methodological novelties: Zervopoulos correction and comparison of efficiency of institutions from different sectors, particularly the public and NGO sector. Finally, its findings will have an applied policy orientation and will hopefully lead to better targeting of necessary measures in the field of culture (and, particularly, the non-governmental sector in culture) in Slovenia.

Na konferenco v Helsinkih o kulturi in trajnostnemu razvoju sem prijavil dva povzetka, rezultate še čakam:

INDICATOR SET FOR ADDING CULTURE AS A FOURTH PILLAR OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT (samostojno)

In the article we will use an initial indicator dataset of Eurostat Sustainable Development (SD) Indicators (see e.g. Adelle & Pallemaerts 2009) to present a proposal of upgraded indicator framework for the inclusion of culture in the sustainable development framework. Methodologically, the article will be composed of three parts: in the first one, we will analyse the existing set of SD indicators using methods from multivariate analysis (factor analysis, multidimensional scaling). Secondly, we will propose a feasible and parsimonious set of indicators for the inclusion of culture in the SD framework using findings and debates from the reference literature (e.g. Hawkes 2001; Nurse 2006; Dallaire & Colbert 2012; Pascual 2012; Burford et al. 2013). Finally, we will perform a number of methodological tests to verify the optimality of proposed framework, using multivariate analysis (clustering, principal components and factor analysis), imputation of missing data (using FCS method of van Buuren at al. 2006), normalisation, different weighting and aggregation schemes etc. (following OECD 2008). The results will allow us to, firstly, explore the feasibility and justifiability of proposing culture as a fourth pillar of SD, and secondly, to make a strongly applied and policy oriented proposal of a concrete set of indicators to include, measure and estimate culture as a fourth pillar of sustainable development in an international framework.

CULTURAL STANDARDS AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: IS THERE A CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP? (skupaj z Vesno Čopič)

In the article, we will elaborate the role of the standards of culture for the prosperity of given communities, including their economic performance. By the standards of culture we mean an achieved level of cultural life defined through a set of characteristics referring to both sides: demand (consumption) and supply (creation, production, circulation) of cultural goods and services. We will, therefore, theoretically explore the relationship of cultural standards and the economy, using findings from cultural economics (e.g. Klamer 1996; Throsby 2001; Hutter & Shusterman 2006; Hutter & Throsby 2008; Hutter & Frey 2010) and cultural policy/values of culture (e.g. Holden 2006; Holden 2012). On the basis of the article, applied for the same conference (under Srakar 2015), which elaborates a set of indicators to measure the (independent and separate) cultural dimension of sustainable development, we will construct a (simple) “index of cultural standard” and then explore the relationship of this index to different economic indicators (which are part of the Eurostat Sustainable Development Indicators, see e.g. Adelle & Pallemaerts 2009) using techniques from regression analysis. The framework will allow us to test the influence of “cultural standards” on the economic dimension of sustainable development and, by this, to make a step towards testing the relationship between culture and other dimensions of a (possibly four-dimensional) concept of sustainable development.

Na konferenco Creative Networks and Cultural Output v Dublinu je bil prijavljen tale povzetek:

A SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS OF SLOVENIAN VISUAL ARTISTS: THE IMPORTANCE OF SOCIAL CAPITAL (samostojno)

In the article we will explore the networks of Slovenian visual artists, living and working in the past centuries. To this end we will use the web-encyclopedia Slovenska biografija (if possible we will also use other available databases to strengthen the results of the study), which includes biographies of over 500 Slovenian visual artists (and biographies of numerous artists in other art sectors). In the first phase we will transcribe and code the biographies of the visual artists in all different areas: sculpture, painting and drawing, graphics, design and others. Secondly, we will use tools of social network analysis in the arts (see e.g. Oehler & Sheppard 2010; Borgatti et al. 2009) to study the networks of Slovenian visual artists through centuries, similarly as done by McAndrew and Everett (2014) on the case of British composers. Finally, both phases will be done also for other artists which will allow us to study also the networks arising between art sectors which to our knowledge has not been done frequently in the emerging field of social network analysis of artists’ networks. Our analysis will be, therefore, to our knowledge the first social network analysis of Slovenian artists in general and will provide answers on the centrality and non-centrality of individual artistic figures, to which the findings are so far present only on descriptive level. We will also be able to infer/compare whether social capital of the visual artists was decisive for their artistic success – to this end we will compare their network centrality and their artistic merit as measured by general historical rankings of Slovenian artists. Finally, the analysis of the article will also be able to compare the networks of visual artists and other art sectors to see the possible spillovers of social capital across sectors and sectorial networks.

Na osrednjo konferenco o zdravstveni ekonomiki, managementu in politiki v zdravstvu je bil v naglici prijavljen (in sprejet) le tale povzetek:

HEALTH OF THE ELDERLY PRECARIOUS PEOPLE AND THE SHARE DATABASE: ASSUMPTIONS, REALITY AND A POLICY PERSPECTIVE (samostojno)

In this article we present the results of SHARE wave 4’ dataset analysis and what it tells us about the elderly “precarious” workers and their health situation. For assessment of the health situation we use number of indicators, available in the SHARE database: self-rated health; functional limitations; objective health indicators (such as number of chronic diseases; number of medications, etc.); and accessibility of health care. In the beginning of the article we present some basic descriptive statistics and bivariate analysis results and tests, followed by the multivariate regression analysis (logistic and Firth logistic models). We use data for all 16 European countries involved in the fourth wave of this survey, with particular focus on the situation in Slovenia. Our results show that, contrary to the expectations, the health of elderly self-employed workers is generally in no way inferior to the health of elderly employees and even much better than the average health of elderly unemployed, pensioners and housewives. Problems in the health of the self-employed emerge only when the analysis changes focus to those who are neither employed nor self-employed, while engaged in paid work (“real” precarious people). The latter group does not have any observed statistically significant problems as compared to the general population 50+, while there are visible differences in the health status of employees and “real” precarious workers in almost all the indicators and in the vast majority of the 16 countries included. In conclusion, we show that the abolition of the problems of sampling using the (sample or calibrated) weighting does not show any different results. This is one of the first empirical and econometric analyses of the state of health of elderly precarious people in Slovenia and in general and has considerable implications for the planning of measures in this field: at this stage we can particularly recommend different treatment of different types of precarious work, in our case, the self-employed and the “real” precarious workers.

V delu je tudi približno 10-15 člankov za knjigo SHARE, kjer prispevam empirično analizo, vendar o tem več, ko bo stvar dokončana, torej nekje aprila. Srečamo pa se lahko tudi na simpoziju o kulturni vzgoji in izobraževanju v avstrijskem St. Pöltnu, tam bom gost okrogle mize o znanosti in kulturni vzgoji, več najdete tukaj.

Seveda pa je v zaključevanju še vse tisto, kar je bilo odpredavano v preteklih mesecih, vesel sem, ker je večina oddana ali tik pred oddajo.

Še eno pestro in burno leto se torej obeta, upam, da se kje srečamo.

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