V krizi smisla tiči misel



“The sample size is usually one” – mala, letališčna refleksija o stanju slovenske ekonomske stroke in družboslovja nasploh

Tole sem spisal včeraj, vračajoč se s tele konference. Po “ohlajeni glavi” sem se odločil, da vseeno objavim – v originalu, ker se mi preprosto ne ljubi prevajati, verjamem, da vsaj toliko angleščine premore vsakdo, nekoliko pa je to tudi v duhu zapisa.

“Sitting and waiting for the plane back from Dublin to Ljubljana. The presentation went relatively well – corrected it several times »on-site« and still it was only average or even a little below, there isn’t much space for bluffing, particularly dealing with international circles, overwhelmed these days by methodological studies.

Found out about some ever more popular methods, possible to use, like Optimal Matching Analysis, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimal_matching. To my impression, there is an ever wider disparity between theoretically and methodologically oriented studies – the »theoretical guys« appear to fight heavily to stand the pace of methodological innovations and to present something meaningful, nevertheless most of the times they are left stranded.

If you ask me, I will be quite clear: a really good article needs to have strong theory, strong formal and mathematical model (at least for the papers in economics), strong empirical model (related and derived from the theory and mathematics, you can find a nice econometric post on this here: http://davegiles.blogspot.ie/2013/07/lets-put-econ-back-into.html) and most of all strong results. I admit at least most of my work hardly stands any of those points (hopefully yet…), not to think about the totality.

For Slovenia, the situation is, sincerely said, poor, very poor. With words of a colleague I met here in Dublin, the sample size is usually 1… We should be reflecting this, but we don’t, and then are left wondering why hardly anyone publishes in top world scientific journals. But we have an own, Slovenian solution to this: politics. »Everything is politics«, so no worries for your work, much more important is in which commission you sit in, with whom you drink coffee and beer, and in which newspaper you manage to force your opinion on everything. And then everybody thinks you’re a »tough guy«, all is well, foreign conferences and journals are »neoliberal« and »neoimperialistic« and our little world goes on and on.

Perhaps I’m still not the person to be talking about this as, most of the times, I don’t know if my work is even a start of something of a quality and importance (perhaps my work in cultural economics would just about pass this test). But we should be thinking about this. And we should open up to the foreign knowledge, foreign conferences, our motivation should be to write an article in Econometrica or QJE and not in Delo or Mladina (or Reporter if you like). Once Slavoj Žižek said to one question following his speech something like this: »Slovenians don’t have good writers. Our visual artists are a catastrophe. In general, all our artists, scientists, entrepreneurs are pure rubbish. But the most important thing is to realise this, realise where is our true current position, with no artifical »personality bubbles«, and only then we can go to the stars and really become top.« I realise many of you will disagree with this, well, this is merely how I view things and this will hopefully also be my path and the reality will show if it was/is correct.

No offence to any of this. Don’t know why, but somehow had to clear my thoughts and seeing most of you in Ljubljana.”

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Javni proračuni za kulturo v EU v času gospodarske krize

Tole je bolj ali manj to, kar se je dogajalo z javnimi proračuni za kulturo v evropskih državah v času sedanje gospodarske krize: državni proračuni za kulturo so se močno zmanjšali v začetku krize (Slovenija je bila tu bolj ali manj izjema), učinek evropske »austerity« po letu 2010 pa je precej močneje viden na lokalnih proračunih za kulturo.

Graf je del članka »Public Budgets for Culture in the EU during the 2008-2012 Financial Crisis: An Econometric Analysis/Javni proračuni za kulturo v Evropski uniji v času gospodarske krize: ekonometrična analiza«, avtorja: Andrej Srakar, Inštitut za ekonomska raziskovanja, Ljubljana & Ekonomska fakulteta Univerze v Ljubljani, Slovenija; Ákos Tóth, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Automation, Kecskemét College, Madžarska.

Članek je bil danes na povabilo poslan za objavo v tematski številki španske SSCI revije Hacienda Publica Española/Review of Public Economics. Delovno verzijo članka najdete na: https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxhbmRyZWpzcmFrYXIxOTc1fGd4Ojc4NGUyNDQzOGFjMWZmYjQ.

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Dva ekonometrična članka

Dva zanimiva ekonometrična paperja sta dostopna na ekonometričnem think-tanku Cemmap. Prvega izpostavljam, ker sem na svoji konferenčni odisejadi zadnjega leta naletel tudi na Pierre-Andrea Chiapporija in se z njim znašel skupaj kot komentator na neki konferenci, kjer je imel sicer on vodilno, vabljeno predavanje. Zanimivo, da je na tej isti konferenci Maristella Botticini predstavljala drugo vabljeno predavanje ravno na temo zgodovinskih podatkov (celo vse tja do antičnih časov) glede trga porok.

Pierre-Andre Chiappori, Monica Costa Dias in Costas Meghir

The Marriage Market, Labor Supply and Education Choice

We develop an equilibrium lifecycle model of education, marriage and labor supply and consumption in a transferable utility context. Individuals start by choosing their investments in education anticipating returns in the marriage market and the labor market. They then match based on the economic value of marriage and on preferences. Equilibrium in the marriage market determines intra-household allocation of resources. Following marriage households (married or single) save, supply labor and consume private and public under uncertainty. Marriage thus has the dual role of providing public goods and offering risk sharing. The model is estimated using the British HPS.

Polno besedilo najdete tukaj.

Drugo besedilo pa se ukvarja s temo, ki sem jo sam raziskoval med bivanjem v ZDA: prostovoljnim zagotavljanjem javnih dobrin. Matematično obarvan članek z modelom vrednosti neuporabe, ki je nastal takrat, sedaj končno spet obujam in prijavljam za objavo.

Yonghong An, Yingyao Hu in Pengfei Liu

Estimating Private Provision of Public Goods with Heterogenous Participants: A Structural Analysis

This paper estimates a structural model of private provision of public goods to provide some new empirical evidence on individuals’ strategic contributing behaviors. In the model, individuals’ contributing behaviors are allowed to be heterogenous and time-varying. We show that all the main components of the model including the number of different contributing strategies, functional form for each strategy, and how individuals adjust their strategies are identi ed from the revealed contribution choices of individuals. Further, the structural model is estimated using the data collected in a threshold public good experiment. The empirical results suggest that subjects in our experiment employ three contributing strategies, and they strategically respond to provision history by adjusting their preceding behavior. In addition, the response is heterogenous and dependent on subjects’ contributing strategies.

Polno besedilo najdete tukaj.

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