V krizi smisla tiči misel



Prezentaciji z ICCPR Hildesheim

Včeraj sem se vrnil s konference mednarodnega združenja raziskovalcev kulturne politike ICCPR v nemškem Hildesheimu.

Obe prezentaciji (posebej tista o indeksu kulturne politike) sta doživeli kar nekaj odzivov, prezentaciji najdete tukaj:
1) Srakar, Verbič, Čopič: Index construction and multivariate analysis in high-dimensional environments: application to a cultural policy index
2) Srakar, Čopič: Economic Effects of Cultural Sector(s): Evidence from Input-Output Analysis

Podrobnejši opis prvega prispevka, torej tistega o indeksu kulturne politike, najdete tukaj, zapis o drugem še pripravljam.

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Arbeit macht frei

Na večini tegale intenzivno delam v teh dneh.

Economic and social inequality “In the Twenty-First Century”: Do we need a new economic and social theory after Piketty?
(prijavljeno in sprejeto na Slovensko sociološko srečanje 2014 “Ekonomija in družba”)

The article will firstly explore different forms of inequality in Slovenia using datasets from Eurostat, SORS and IMAD, building on the results from existing empirical and theoretical studies on economic and social inequality in Slovenia (e.g. Tomc & Pešec 1986; Stanovnik 1994; Stropnik & Stanovnik 2002; Dragoš & Leskošek 2003; Stanovnik & Verbič 2008; Stanovnik & Verbič 2012). Secondly, using econometric study applying panel data and time series analysis we will try to estimate whether there was a significant rise in economic and social inequality in Slovenia in past decade, what were its main causes and whether this had any relationship to the financial crisis after 2008. In accordance with theses of Thomas Piketty (2014), inequality lies in the very heart of the present crisis of capitalism. On the basis of findings of Piketty’s book, the debate that it spurred and our results for the case of Slovenia we will lastly try to provide and answer whether his general findings are sufficient to search for new macroeconomic and sociological theory that would be able to better explain the reality and possibilities of contemporary economic, political and social systems.

Economic Effects of European Capital of Culture Maribor 2012: An Ex-Post Econometric Verification Approach
(prijavljeno in sprejeto na EBES Barcelona 2014, prijavljeno na EBR Ljubljana 2014, v procesu prijave na 2014 Barcelona Workshop on Regional and Urban Economics)

Studies of the economic effects of sports, cultural, scientific and other large-scale events are/were being faced with a dilemma. Ex-ante economic impact studies based on Keynesian multiplier methodology have been widely (and correctly) accused of producing wrong and overblown numbers (see e.g. Seaman 1987; Seaman 2006). Corrections have been sought (particularly in environmental and cultural, while in the past years also in the sports economics, see e.g. Johnson, Mondello & Whitehead 2006) in the contingent valuation approach being able to measure use and passive/non-use values. Yet such studies were subject to severe criticisms as well (see e.g. Diamond & Hausman 1994), while on the other hand leaving the question of the macroeconomic effects of large-scale events largely open and unresolved. We, therefore, present an analysis of the economic effects of European Capital of Culture Maribor 2012 which uses a triangulation of methods: an economic impact study using data from visitors questionnaires done on site and multipliers calculated on the basis of latest (2010) release of the national input-output tables; an ex-post econometric verification (using static and dynamic panel data models and difference-in-differences approach) of the economic effects of the event on the private companies revenues, new employment, monthly wages and tourism visits and overnights using monthly based data of Slovenian Statistical Office; and, finally, results of a contingent valuation study done after the event on a larger set of questionnaires. We are able to show that while the multiplier based analysis predicts up to 1000 new employment spaces in the area, the actual effects were very different and the effects on new employment were negligible, if any. Furthermore, in several categories it was not the city of Maribor who profited most from the event but the other partner cities in the project. We conclude by summarising the basics of the method (ex-post econometric verification) that is new in cultural economics and is able to bridge the futile conflict between the impact studies and contingent valuation by answering the right questions (the problem of contingent valuation) in the right way (the problem of impact studies).

Keywords: economic impact, contingent valuation, ex-post econometric verification, treatment effects, European Capitals of Culture, Maribor 2012
JEL classification: R15, L83, Z11

Index construction and multivariate analysis in high-dimensional settings: application to a cultural policy index
(prijavljeno in sprejeto na EBES Barcelona 2014, prijavljeno in sprejeto na ICCPR Hildesheim 2014)
soavtorja: Miroslav Verbič, Vesna Čopič

The problems of high-dimensionality frequently occur when using macroeconomic datasets encompassing data for only a limited group of countries. In the article we present the construction of a cultural policy index using datasets of Eurostat’s Cultural Statistics Pocketbooks 2007 and 2011, Compendium of Cultural Policies and Trends in Europe and Eurostat’s COFOG data. The datasets allow us a time perspective over a set of more than 300 variables in 12 domains: general development, cultural heritage, education in culture, cultural employment, internet habits, private expenditure, foreign trade, participation in the arts, special features (ratios of women among artists, ratios of part-time jobs, etc.), public funding, legislation, and public policy system characteristics. Using high-dimensional methods eliminating the outlier influence and constructing robust factor estimates (following e.g. Bai & Li 2012) we construct a robust cultural policy index, showing the level of the quality of cultural policy for the observed 33 European countries in years 2005 and 2009. On the basis of exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis we are able to determine a set of five dimensions on which the quality of cultural policy mainly depends: general development and foreign trade; education and cultural participation; financing; legislation and public policy characteristics; and internet habits. Using clustering analysis we are also able to determine the broader similarities and differences among cultural policy models in Europe. We are able to show the existence of two broadly different groups of countries: Western European; and Eastern and Southern European Countries; with some occasional outliers such as Baltic countries, Cyprus and Slovenia. The clusters were robust over years. In general, this analysis brings a first developed tool to empirically follow the changes in the levels of cultural policy and shows the main key dimensions of the quality of cultural policy on which similar endeavors to form cultural indexes (which were massively appearing in past years, see e.g. a comparison of approaches by Inkei 2014) should be based in future. Also, the clustering of models has important consequences for empirical cultural policy and has to be tested and verified in future studies.

Keywords: high-dimensional models, factor analysis, robust methods, cultural policy index, Eurostat, cultural policy models
JEL classification: C38, C43, C55, Z11, Z18

Economic Effects of Cultural Sector(s): Evidence from Input-Output Analysis
(prijavljeno in sprejeto na ICCPR Hildesheim 2014)
soavtorica: Vesna Čopič

In the article we present a Keynesian multiplier analysis of economic effects of sectors of cultural and creative industries vs. sectors related to »core« arts fields. It has become an established claim that cultural and creative industries are among the most prosperous sectors of EU economy and that when we focus on economic effects of culture we therefore have to focus on cultural and creative industries. We try to verify this claim by including the discussion of not only direct sales effects but also indirect and induced economic effects as measured by Keynesian multipliers. We find evidence that supports the prevailing claim, although the evidence is not fully supported in different geographical areas. We also find evidence that cultural sectors in general have larger (macro)economic effects than any other public sector excluding science and research. Finally we show that multipliers for cultural industries are the highest among cultural sectors.

Keywords: cultural and creative industries, core arts, economic effects, input-output analysis, multipliers, European Union

Public budgets for culture in the EU during the financial crisis: an econometric analysis
(prijavljeno na EBR Ljubljana 2014, povabljeno za objavo v tematski številki španske ekonomske revije v SSCI klasifikaciji)
soavtor: Ákos Tóth

The article analyses whether EU countries use similar cultural financing strategies during crisis as they use in economically successful years. To provide an answer to the question we evaluate the following main hypothesis: “Effects of the financial crisis were reflected in the cuts in general, central and local budgets for culture.” To estimate it we use methods from multivariate analysis(hierarchical and K-means clustering, principal components analysis), and panel data regression analysis (static and dynamic models). Due to the endogenous(reverse-causal) nature of relationship between central and local budgets in culture that has so far not been modelled, explained and econometrically tested, we also use panel VAR methodology to resolve and estimate the consequences of this relationship. We use dataset from Eurostat according to COFOG methodology. It has to be noted that this is one of the first (or perhaps the first) econometric analyses of public budgets for culture and their determinants in the EU and in general. We are able to establish several main findings: 1) during the period 2008-2011 in 13 studied European countries cuts in cultural budgets as measured from deviations to the trend were present on both central as well as local level (somewhat contrary to what was established by previous study of Čopič et al., 2013); 2) the patterns of cuts in the cultural budgets have not always followed cultural policy characteristics of the studied countries; 3) there indeed exists a reverse-causal relationship among central and local cultural budgets – raising the central cultural budget also raise the local cultural budgets, while, on the other hand, raising of the local cultural budgets have minor if not negative effects on the level of central cultural budget. This has important policy consequences and has to be verified and tested in future empirical studies.

Literature Review on Cultural Governance and Cities
(objavljeno v Kult-ur, http://www.e-revistes.uji.es/index.php/kult-ur/article/view/1253)
soavtorja: Jordi Baltà, Vesna Čopič

In late 2011, the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Education and Culture (DG EAC) asked the European Expert Network on Culture (EENC) to prepare a literature review examining recent academic contributions to the concept of ‘cultural governance’. The resulting document, written by Vesna Čopič and Andrej Srakar, was later used in the preparations for a conference entitled ‘Cultural Governance in a Globalising World: Better Governance for the Cultural and Creative Sector’, held in August 2012 under the Cypriot Presidency of the EU. One of the papers and reports regularly produced by the EENC at the request of DG EAC in order to foster reflection on cultural policies, it was later published online.

The aforementioned literature review analysed over 50 publications published between 2006 and 2011, examining the notion of cultural governance, its implications in cultural policy, relations with the creative sector, the governance of individual cultural institutions and a set of related issues, stressing the manifold uses and implications of the term. Building on that experience, a more specific analysis of cultural governance and its implications for cultural policy in cities has been prepared for this issue of Kult-ur. The article examines a selection of documents included in the previous literature review, with particular emphasis on those which help to further analyse the key terms and which have implications for cultural policy at local level. In addition, some earlier or more recent references have been included, where they helped to put reflections in context and connect them with other relevant contributions.

Učinkovitost javnega sektorja in nevladnih organizacij v kulturi in umetnosti v Sloveniji 2005-2013: analiza z metodo podatkovne ovojnice
Povzetek krajše raziskave

Na področju vrednotenja učinkovitosti institucij v kulturi vlada na področju kulturne ekonomike nekakšna eksplozija študij. Zlasti s pomočjo uporabe neparametrične metode podatkovne ovojnice (DEA oz. Data Envelopment Analysis) je bilo na tem področju pionirsko delo italijanskih kulturnih ekonomistov Tiziane Cuccie, Calogera Guccia in Ilde Rizzo, ki so v svojem prispevku iz leta 2013 dokazali, da je učinkovitost italijanskih kulturnih destinacij (področje kulturnega oz. dediščinskega turizma) negativno povezana z vpisom na seznam UNESCO-ve kulturne dediščine. Njihovemu delu je v letih 2013 in 2014 sledila vrsta podobnih študij, ki so s pomočjo metode DEA (npr. Herrero-Prieto in Gomez-Vega 2014 za področje španskih muzejev; Guccio, Pignataro in Rizzo 2014 za področje italijanskih arhivov) ali metode stohastične analize mejne funkcije (npr. Suominen 2014 za področje finskih gledališč) vrednotile učinkovitosti različnih institucij v kulturi.

Sami bi želeli v raziskavi Učinkovitost javnega sektorja in nevladnih organizacij v kulturi in umetnosti v Sloveniji ovrednotiti učinkovitost javnih zavodov in nevladnih organizacij na področju kulture in umetnosti s pomočjo omenjene metode DEA.

V ta namen bi zbrali vrsto podatkov o delovanju javnih zavodov v kulturi na področju vse Slovenije (financiranje – podatke smo že pridobili s strani Ministrstva za kulturo RS; število zaposlenih; število prireditev; število premier; število postprodukcij; število obiskovalcev; število prodanih vstopnic; itd.) v časovnem obdobju 2005-2013. Podatke bi nato uporabili v začetni analizi podatkovne ovojnice, ki terja določitev inputov (npr. javna sredstva, število zaposlenih) in outputov (število prireditev, število obiskovalcev, raven prihodkov) in na podlagi tega ovrednotili kateri javni zavodi v kulturi v Sloveniji imajo določene probleme glede učinkovitosti, na katerih področjih (inputih in outputih) se problemi nahajajo, ter kolikšne spremembe v omenjenih inputih in outputih (raven javnih sredstev, raven zaposlenih, število prireditev, itd.) bi bile pri določenem zavodu potrebne za optimalno učinkovitost. Vse to sodi v osnovne rezultate, ki jih ponudi vsaka analiza prek metode DEA.

Poleg navedenega bi naredili še sledeče: 1) primerjalna učinkovitost nevladnih organizacij in javnih zavodov na področju kulture z uporabo (mikro-, torej podatkov po organizacijah) podatkov SURS, ki so postali dostopni od leta 2012 naprej in je možno do njih dostopati prek aplikacij Varna soba in Oddaljeni dostop; 3) z uporabo podatkov elaborata Asociacije iz leta 2010, kjer je možno tudi povezati podatke o nevladni organizaciji z njenim imenom, pregled problemov glede učinkovitosti (števila zaposlenih, financiranja, števila prireditev in obiskovalcev) na področju konkretnih nevladnih organizacij in predlogov, kaj storiti za izboljšanje le-tega; v kolikor podatki Elaborata ne bodo zadoščali, bomo v ta namen ponovili vprašalnik, ki je bil izveden takrat tudi na podatkih za 2013 in 2014.

Poleg tega bomo primerjali in preverili tudi gibanje učinkovitosti javnega sektorja v kulturi v obdobju 2005-2013, preverili bomo torej splošno slišane pavšalne teze, da so javne institucije neučinkovite, da je v njih veliko rezerv in da so trenutno zgolj veliko breme za javni proračun. Za to bodo dovolj zbrani podatki iz zgoraj opisanih faz raziskave.

Navsezadnje bomo v skladu z metodologijo, uporabljeno v prispevku Cuccia, Guccio, Rizzo (2013) uporabili tudi regresijske modele, da bomo videli kateri zunanji dejavniki (vložki mesta v kulturo, v turizem, splošna dogajanja v mestu oz. v Sloveniji itd.) in kako vplivajo na izračunane učinkovitosti prek metode DEA.

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