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15.08.2014

O sreči in znanju v pokru

Zapisano pod: Statistika — andee - 15.08.2014
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Verjetno zanimiv blogerski zapis Andrewa Gelmana za vse spletne in reallife pokeraše: http://andrewgelman.com/2014/08/14/luck-vs-skill-poker/#more-23431.

Kratek izsek iz besedila:
“For a couple years in grad school a group of us had a regular Thursday-night poker game, nickel-dime-quarter with a maximum bet of $2, I believe it was. I did ok, it wasn’t hard to be a steady winner by just laying low most of the time and raising when I had a good hand. Since then I’ve played only very rarely (one time was a memorable experience with some journalists and a foul-mouthed old-school politico—I got out of that one a couple hundred dollars up but with no real desire to return), but I did have a friend who was really good. I played a couple of times with him and some others, and it was like the kind of thing you hear about: he seemed to be able to tell what cards I was holding. Don’t get me wrong here, I’m not saying that he was cheating or that it was uncanny or anything, and it’s not like he was taking my money every hand. As always in a limit game, the outcomes had a lot of randomness. But from time to time, it big hands, it really did seem like he was figuring me out. I didn’t think to ask him how he was doing it but I was impressed.

Upon recent reflection, though (many years later), it seems to me that I was slightly missing the point. The key is that my friend didn’t need to “read” me or know what I had; all he needed to do was make the right bets (or, to be more precise, make betting decisions that would perform well on average). He could well have made some educated guesses about my holdings based on my betting patterns (or even my “tells”) and used that updated probability distribution to make more effective betting decisions. The point is that, in many many settings, he doesn’t need to guess my cards; he just needs a reasonable probability distribution (which might be implicit). For example, in some particular situation in a particular hand, perhaps it would be wise for him to fold if he the probability is more than 30% that a particular hole card of mine is an ace. With no information, he’d assess this event as having an (approximate) 2% probability. So do I have that ace? He just needs to judge whether the probability is greater or less than 30%, an assessment that he can do using lots of information available to him. But once he makes that call, if he does it right (as he will, often enough; that’s part of what it means to be a good poker player), it’ll seem to me like he was reading my hand.”

Tisti, ki vas zadeva zanima v bolj poglobljenih statistično-znanstvenih podrobnostih, pa najdete kar nekaj gradiva tukaj.

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